Conversion of Norway spruce forests in the face of climate change: a case study in Central Europe

Steadily increasing damage to Norway spruce forests in Europe has caused researchers and managers to consider whether these forests can be converted to more stable ecosystems. In a central European mountain region, we investigated whether management systems (MSs) specified by regional stakeholders provide sound alternatives to the currently applied management. We used the forest model Sibyla to explore whether the tested MSs differ in their sensitivity to climate change in terms of altered biomass production, stand structure, forest damage, and financial outcome. The tested MSs were no-management (NM), currently applied management (BAU), and management based on the preferences of forest managers (FM) or on the preferences of other stakeholders (OSH). With NM, spruce remained dominant during the simulation period 2010–2100, and the rate of damage significantly increased. Spruce also remained dominant with FM, while the abundance of non-spruce species significantly increased with BAU and OSH. The rate of salvage logging converged at 50% of the total harvest for all MSs up to 2050. Climate change reduced biomass production (−15%) with all MSs but had a negligible effect on biodiversity indicators. The average initial value of the simulated stands was 20,000 € ha −1 and the nominal value in 2100 was between 1900 and 10,900 € ha −1 . The Net Present Value calculated with the 2% interest rate was negative during the whole simulation period (−5600 to −18,500 € ha −1 in 2100). Effect of climate change on all financial indicators was negative. Our findings indicate that secondary spruce forests are highly vulnerable and that the systems proposed by both forest managers and other regional stakeholders failed to significantly reduce forest damage and stabilize forest production.