Patient flow prediction via discriminative learning of mutually-correcting processes (extended abstract)

We focus on an important problem of predicting the so-called “patient flow” from longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs), which has not been explored via existing machine learning techniques. We develop a point process based framework for modeling patient flow through various care units (CUs) and jointly predicting patients' destination CUs and duration days. We propose a novel discriminative learning algorithm aiming at improving the prediction of transition events in the case of sparse data. By parameterizing the proposed model as mutually-correcting processes, we formulate the estimation problem via generalized linear models and solve it based on alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). We achieve simultaneous feature selection and learning by adding a group-lasso regularizer to the ADMM algorithm. Additionally, we synthesize auxiliary training data for the classes with extremely few samples, and improve the robustness of our learning method to the problem of data imbalance.