Forecasting the Impacts of Articles and Authors on the Social Forum during Emergencies.

The Sunflower movement is one of the most influential protests in Taiwan in recent years. Without any sign in advance, the protesters entered and occupied the building of the Legislative Yuan (the parliament) of Taiwan on March 18, 2014. However, there were few reporters at the scene, and information was in chaos at that time. In order to find an efficient approach to filter and disseminate information under this kind of urgent situations, we study the user behaviors on the largest bulletin board system in Taiwan. From our results, we provide effective methodologies to quantify and predict the impact of each article on the social forum and propose approaches to identify opinion leaders during emergencies.