Prediction of individual learning curves across information visualizations

Confident usage of information visualizations is thought to be influenced by cognitive aspects as well as amount of exposure and training. To support the development of individual competency in visualization processing, it is important to ascertain if we can track users’ progress or difficulties they might have while working with a given visualization. In this paper, we extend previous work on predicting in real time a user’s learning curve—a mathematical model that can represent a user’s skill acquisition ability—when working with a visualization. First, we investigate whether results we previously obtained in predicting users’ learning curves during visualization processing generalize to a different visualization. Second, we study to what extent we can make predictions on a user’s learning curve without information on the visualization being used. Our models leverage various data sources, including a user’s gaze behavior, pupil dilation, and cognitive abilities. We show that these models outperform a baseline that leverages knowledge on user task performance so far. Our best performing model achieves good accuracies in predicting users’ learning curves even after observing users’ performance on a few tasks only. These results represent an important step toward understanding how to support users in learning a new visualization.