Early Activity Diversity: Assessing Newcomer Retention from First-Session Activity

Online communities suffer serious newcomer attrition. This paper explores whether and how early activity diversity - the degree to which a newcomer engages in a wide range of a site's activities in the first session - is associated with their longevity. We introduce a metric (DSCORE) to characterize early activity diversity in online sites and run our analyses on an online community ‘MovieLens’. We find that DSCORE is significant both by itself and in conjunction with a measure of quantity of activity in predicting longevity. This finding is robust to different measures of longevity (aggregate number of sessions and attritions after sessions 1, 5, and 10). The immediate implication is an effective classifier for identifying users with higher (or lower) expected longevity from the first-session activity. We also find DSCORE is more useful than a traditional measure of measuring diversity such as the Gini-Simpson index. We conclude by discussing how early activity diversity may be more broadly effective in supporting design and management of online communities.