Towards A Reasonable Standard For Analysis: How Right, How Often On Which Issues?

This article takes the view that largely impossible standards have been imposed on intelligence analysis, largely for political reasons stemming from the 9/11 attacks and Iraqi WMD. The article begins by examining the supposed lessons for intelligence analysis derived from these. It turns out that many of these widely accepted lessons have little basis and are, when compared, entirely contradictory from one case to the other. The article then reviews what the office of the Director of National Intelligence has done to make changes in analytical tradecraft and assesses whether these steps are likely to have a positive effect on future intelligence analysis. Finally, the article posits some ways in which analysis should be assessed and some of the impediments that will make this difficult even though it is necessary.