MANAGING THE FUTURE: MODELS, SCENARIOS AND THE CONTROL OF UNCERTAINTY

Purpose - To consider the emerging qualitative approaches that consider the future, exploring ways in which these may be better used to complement and extend established practice in global climate models. Methodology/approach - A review of contemporary modelling approaches that consider the future for transport applications, with a focus on complexity and uncertainty issues, the search for foresight, the role of engagement and the credibility of qualitative foresight. Findings - The importance of the need to incorporate socio-economic scenarios in climate change models and the possibilities offered by the tool of systematic qualitative foresight are demonstrated. Originality/value - Explores limitations of quantitative modelling approaches to foresight and introduces a potentially complementary, innovative approach based on the systematic use of qualitative methodologies.