Poultry population dynamics and spread of the avian influenza virus in poultry farms in Vietnam.

Since 2003, Vietnam has experienced the highest incidence of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia. The influenza virus spread through numerous contacts occurring between birds in those networks. This study was designed first to model the local poultry flux dynamics using field data from a province in Northern Vietnam. Then, we developed a disease transmission model within a poultry network, driven by flux dynamics. Simulation results illustrated the changes in poultry livestock over a two - year period. Various aspects of changes in the poultry livestock occurring in response to events perturbing the network could be studied thanks to the flux dynamics model