Model study of nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Maine: patterns and drivers for seasonal and interannual variability

Coupled physical-biological modelling experiments were made for the period of 1995-2009 to analyse the spatial and interannual variability of nutrients and phytoplankton production in the Gulf of Maine (GOM). The physical model was the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) and the biological model was a Nitrogen, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, and Detritus (NPZD) model. The simulation was carried out with realistic meteorological surface forcing, five major tidal constituents, river discharge, and observation-based open boundary conditions. The results were robust with comparison to SeaWiFS chlorophyll data and historical data of nitrogen. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis clearly identified two dominant modes in nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics: (1) sustained nutrient supply and phytoplankton production from spring through autumn, and (2) a dominating phytoplankton bloom in spring, relatively low production in summer, and a noticeable bloom in autumn. Mode 1 was a dominant feature in strong tidal energy dissipation regions such as the southwestern shelf of Nova Scotia, Georges Bank, Nantucket Shoals, the Bay of Fundy, and the coastal regions of GOM, where tidal pumping and mixing were the major drivers for the sustained nutrient supply, and primary production showed certain resilience with less interannual variability. Mode 2 was a characteristic in the deep Gulf, the offshore region of the Scotian Shelf, and in the open sea area, where the timing and amplitude of the spring phytoplankton bloom is essentially controlled by the salinity regime, and its interannual variability was significantly influenced by freshening events controlled by local and remote forcing.