Comparative genetic responses to climate for the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii : Realized climate niches

•We model the climate niche of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii varieties.•Classification errors were less than 5% and were mostly false positives.•Niche space was mapped for the decade surrounding 2060 using GCM ensemble output.•Projected impacts were more severe for P. ponderosa than for P. menziesii.•Projections were dire for the varieties occurring in Mexico.