Complication probability model for subcutaneous fibrosis based on published data of partial and whole breast irradiation

Purpose To extend the application of current radiation therapy (RT) based normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models of radiation-induced fibrosis (RIF) of the breast to include the effects of fractionation, inhomogeneous dose, incomplete recovery, and time after the end of radiotherapy in partial breast irradiation (PBI). Materials and methods An NTCP Lyman model with biologically effective uniform dose (BEUD) with and without a correction for the effect of incomplete repair was used. The time to occurrence of RIF was also taken into account. The radiobiological parameters were determined by fitting incidences of moderate/severe RIF in published randomized studies on RT of the breast. The NTCP model was used to calculate the risk of toxicity in 35 patients treated with intensity modulated, non-accelerated PBI and the result was compared with observed incidence of RIF. Results With α/β fixed at 3Gy the parameters of the model without correction for incomplete repair extracted from fitting were: 50% complication probability biologically effective dose BEUD50 = 107.2 Gy (95%CI = 95.9–118.6 Gy), volume parameter n = 0.06 (95%CI = 0–0.23), and slope of dose response m = 0.22, (95%CI = 0.20–0.23). After including the correction for incomplete repair with repair halftime for subcutaneous tissue of τ = 4.4 h we obtained BEUD50 = 105.8 Gy (95%CI = 96.9–114.6Gy), n = 0.15 (95%CI = 0–0.33), m = 0.22 (95%CI = 0.20–0.23). Average NTCP predicted by these models, 4.3% and 2.0% respectively, offered a good agreement with RIF incidence in our patients, 5.7%, after an average follow-up of 12 months. Conclusion The NTCP models of RIF, incorporating the effects of fractionation, volume effect, and latency of toxicity look promising to model PBI. Clinical validation from a prospective PBI treatment study is under development and will help test this preliminary result.