Survival analysis of infected mice reveals pathogenic variations in the genome of avian H1N1 viruses

Most influenza pandemics have been caused by H1N1 viruses of purely or partially avian origin. Here, using Cox proportional hazard model, we attempt to identify the genetic variations in the whole genome of wild-type North American avian H1N1 influenza A viruses that are associated with their virulence in mice by residue variations, host origins of virus (Anseriformes-ducks or Charadriiformes-shorebirds) and host-residue interactions. In addition, through structural modeling, we predicted that several polymorphic sites associated with pathogenicity were located in structurally important sites, especially in the polymerase complex and NS genes. Our study introduces a new approach to identify pathogenic variations in wild-type viruses circulating in the natural reservoirs and ultimately to understand their infectious risks to humans as part of risk assessment efforts towards the emergence of future pandemic strains.