Causation analysis of railway traffic accident based on rough set theory

Railway accidents are often caused by multiple factors. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately analyze the factors affecting railway traffic safety. We used the Rough Set Theory, which is often used to deal with the uncertain and inaccurate mathematic puzzles for solving this problem. Firstly, the main factors affecting the train operation safety are discovered. Secondly, the factors are assorted and each of them is assigned a value respectively by their characteristics then train operation accidents are ranked into different classes by their damage to the railway. Based on the process described above, a decision-making table for analyzing the causes of the train operation accidents is established. Then the decision-making table is calculated using the relative importance degree of the Rough Set Theory to show each factors influence on the train operation safety. The conclusion could be used to offer effective measures for preventing railway accidents and relaying train accident information to decision makers. Finally, the calculating method and steps are given via a case study, and then research directions in the future are put forward.