Modeling Florida panther movements in response to human attributes of the landscape and ecological settings

This paper describes the development and results of an individual-based spatially explicit model created to assist in the potential reintroduction of the Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) to northern Florida, an area within its former range. The PANTHER model was created to incorporate human attributes of the landscape with ecological attributes to evaluate and identify landscape features and conservation strategies that will be critical to a population of panthers. The model mimics panther movement behavior using a C++ program, and implements panther moves over Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps depicting land cover, roads, deer densities, and human densities. Sensitivity analysis revealed home range sizes were most sensitive to how panthers perceived the landscape, their place of reintroduction on the landscape, and gender-based rules. Panther interactions were dependent on perception distances. Home range placement within the study area was most similar to field studies when panthers ranked cypress as a tertiary rather than a secondary preferred land cover type. Model simulation results indicated locations along the Suwannee River where Florida panthers and humans would prefer to reside, both under 1990s landscape conditions, and under two possible future scenarios that predicted future human development. As human density and development were increased the use of hardwood hammocks (a land cover preferred by panthers) was predicted to decrease. Simulation results also indicated that panthers increased use of several other land cover types, were subjected to increased mortality on roads, and constricted their home ranges as human density and development increased. Model results can be used to support conservation actions that restrict development in areas along rivers and identify landowners who own land panthers would most likely use.