Improved fuzzy auto-regressive model for connection rate prediction

Specific to the need of performance prediction in communication networks,a connection rate prediction method based on fuzzy Auto-Regressive(AR) model was proposed and improved,and the fuzzy AR model based on adaptive fitting degree threshold was studied.The median filtering method was applied to pre-process the data of fuzzy AR model.On this basis,for the uncertain thresholds of some applications,the fitting degree threshold formula was added to the prediction model to make it adaptive.The simulation results show that the predistion method based on fuzzy AR model can be used to predict the connection rate with a higher fitting degree.