Software-effort estimation with a case-based reasoner

Software effort estimation is an important but difficult task. Existing algorithmic models often fail to predict effort accurately and consistently. To address this, we developed a computational approach to software effort estimation. cEstor is a case-based reasoning engine developed from an analysis of expert reasoning. cEstor's architecture explicitly separates case-independent productivity adaptation knowledge (rules) from case-specific representations of prior projects encountered (cases). Using new data from actual projects, uncalibrated cEstor generated estimates which compare favorably to those of the referent expert, calibrated Function Points and calibrated COCOMO. The estimates were better than those produced by uncalibrated Basic COCOMO and Intermediate COCOMO. The roles of specific knowledge components in cEstor (cases, adaptation rules, and retrieval heuristics) were also examined. The results indicate that case-independent productivity adaptation rules affect the consistency of estimates and appropriate case selection affects the accuracy of estimates, but the combination of an adaptation rule set and unrestricted case base can yield the best estimates. Retrieval heuristics based on source lines of code and a Function Count heuristic based on summing over differences in parameter values, were found to be equivalent in accuracy and consistency, and both performed better than a heuristic based on Function Count totals.