Is 'vegetation thickening' occurring in Queensland's mulga lands? A 50-year aerial photographic analysis

Changes in the density of woody vegetation in arid and semiarid rangelands have the potential to dramatically reduce productivity as well as adversely affect 'natural' ecosystem processes. Many parts of Australia are believed to have experienced thickening of woody vegetation since European occupation and the associated changes to. re and grazing regimes that followed. Unfortunately there is little empirical evidence to support a widely held perception of thickening. This study analyses the available historical aerial photographic coverage for the mulga lands bioregion of south-western Queensland, Australia; a record spanning the second half of the twentieth century. Changes in woody vegetation canopy cover were assessed for 190 sites. More than half of the sites had no evidence of mechanical disturbance and thus reflected general, or background trends in woody vegetation cover. The region-wide average extent of change on these undisturbed sites was estimated to be approximately a 3.6% increase in canopy cover over the study period. Thus, a trend toward vegetation thickening was detected. However, large variation was observed depending on the land systems and rainfall zone where sites were located. The results are discussed in the context of century scale climate variability and perceptions of vegetation change and a tentative explanatory model is presented to account for the observed data.