[Multivariate prognostic analysis for patients with unresectable esophageal carcinoma after concurrent chemoradiotherapy].

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE:Concurrent chemoradiotherapy is recommended as standard treatment for unresectable esophageal carcinoma now. This study was to analyze the prognostic factors of unresectable esophageal carcinoma after concurrent chemoradiotherapy. METHODS:A total of 132 unresectable esophageal carcinoma patients received concurrent chemoradiotherapy from Jan. 1996 to Dec. 2003 in our hospital. All patients received chemotherapy at the beginning of radiotherapy, and when the radiation dose escalated to 40 Gy. Total dose of irradiation was 60-70 Gy. Gender, age, disease course, focus location, swallow embarrassment, weight loss, Karnofsky's performance status (KPS) score, family history, hemoglobin (HB) before therapy, X-ray type, pathologic grade, focus length, TNM stage, irradiation method and technology, irradiation dose, radiotherapy interval, short-term effect, esophagus perforation, esophagus haemorrhage, and retreatment methods were used as analysis factors for Cox regression univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS:Univariate analysis showed that diseases course, focus location, weight loss, M stage, short-term effect, esophagus perforation, esophagus haemorrhage, and retreatment methods were prognostic factors of these patients. Multivariate analysis showed that M stage [P=0.014, odds ratio (OR)=2.515], short-term effect (P < 0.001, OR=2.181), esophagus perforation (P=0.022, OR=3.266), and retreatment methods (P=0.026, OR=1.142) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSION:The main prognostic factors of the patients with unresectable esophageal carcinoma treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy are M stage, short-term effect, esophagus perforation, and retreatment methods.