Use of neural networks for predictions using time series: Illustration with the El Niño Southern oscillation phenomenon

This paper introduces the use of sets of multiple networks (bundled networks) to manage the variability due to different initialization parameters. This method makes it statistically impossible for the networks to be trapped in the same local minimum, and therefore allows better control of the confidence of the prediction eventually given. The spread of the forecasts given by these different networks can be used for prediction reliability purposes. An illustration of this usage is given with the El Niño phenomenon.