Prediction of tuberculosis risk with grey dynamic model in the Yichang region of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

Objective To predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Yichang region of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.Methods The grey dynamic model was established with the incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yichang from 1997 to 2008.We use the model to predict the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis for the year of 2009-2012.Results The model predicted that the incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis would be 260.55,317.41,385.31,466.18 per 100 000 person-years respectively for the year of 2009-2112.Conclusion The model suggested the upward trend of the disease incidence.Comprehensive measures should be taken to control the risk of TB disease transmission in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.