Simulations of crop responses to climate change: effects with present technology and currently available adjustments (the ‘smart farmer’ scenario)

If climate changes, farmers will have to adapt to a new set of climate constraints. In this paper we examine the efficacy of strategies for dealing with climate change that are currently available to farmers and that are inexpensive to use; we refer to this group of strategies as ‘adjustments’. Adjustment schemes of various kinds were identified for us by agricultural experts in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) states. These can involve changes in land use, changes in variety and crop selection, changes in planting and harvesting practices, and changes in fertility and pest management. Using the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) model on a small set of representative farms, we tested adjustments of these kinds. The simulations show that earlier planting, longer-season cultivars and the use of furrow diking for moisture conservation would offset some of the yield losses induced by climate change in warm-season crops. Longer-season varieties of wheat (a cool-season crop) and shorter-season varieties of the perennials wheatgrass and alfalfa were also effective.