A philosophical comparison of decision aid techniques for the policy analyst

This paper explores the epistemological foundations of some of the decision technologies commonly used in policy analysis including statistics, operations research, and expert systems. The paper develops the idea that a root metaphor or a world view exists in every decision situation, and serves as a filter that determines the appropriate decision aid technology for a particular problem. The notion of root metaphor is particularly important for the policy analyst confronted by the competing values of social science and political reality. The problems of uncovering the critical biases of an expert when creating an expert system are explored, leading to the development of a typology that compares the epistemological differences of decision aid technologies. The paper's goal is to provide an understanding of the philosophical points of view of decision aids in order to educate users to the possibility of Type III errors.