Risk factors predicting onset and persistence of subthreshold expression of bipolar psychopathology among youth from the community: Predicting persistence of bipolar symptoms

Objective: To examine factors increasing the risk for onset and persistence of subthreshold mania and depression. Method: In a prospective cohort community study, the association between risk factors [a family history of mood disorders, trauma, substance use, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and temperamental/personality traits] and onset of manic/depressive symptoms was determined in 705 adolescents. The interaction between baseline risk factors and baseline symptoms in predicting 8-year follow-up symptoms was used to model the impact of risk factors on persistence. Results: Onset of manic symptoms was associated with cannabis use and novelty seeking (NS), but NS predicted a transitory course. Onset of depressive symptoms was associated with a family history of depression. ADHD and harm avoidance (HA) were associated with persistence of depressive symptoms, while trauma and a family history of depression predicted a transitory course. Conclusion: Different risk factors may operate during onset and persistence of subthreshold mania and depression. The differential associations found for mania and depression dimensions suggest partly different underlying mechanisms.