Settlement growth and densification within a peri-urban poly-centric region - driving forces analysis, model development and preliminary simulation results

The Observatory Spatial Planning (OSP), which is part of the Integrated Project geoland, will generate products and services based on Earth Observation (EO), geo-spatial and statistical data. Among these products urban growth models and scenarios play an important role. This paper discusses the model preparation tasks - analysing the regional structure, modifying the already developed model, quantifying the factors and parameters - the model concept and its application and first results for the Rhine Valley region in Vorarlberg, the most western province of Austria. In contrast to typical urban-suburban landscapes with a dominating core city in the centre, the study area consists of several sub centres and a large number of small rural settlements all growing in different ways. Analyses of settlement growth in the Rhine Valley showed that migration is not the major driver for enlargement of residential areas. Other driving forces were identified and a cause-effect-chain was proofed statistically and quantified. The settlement growth model is based on a multi agent system which simulates the allocation decisions of households and companies. Validation of the model is performed by control runs for the past decade comparing model results with corresponding land-use classifications derived from earth observation. The results shown in this paper will focus on the comparison of statistical parameters on the municipal level. Acknowledgements. The project geoland is funded by the European Commission in the frame of the GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) initiative of the 6th framework programme (Contract No SIP3-CT-2003-502871) and is co-ordinated by Infoterra GmbH, Friedrichshafen, and Medias France, Toulouse.