The number of markers of pancreatic autoimmunity is proportional to the risk for type 1 diabetes mellitus in Italian and English patients with organ-specific autoimmune diseases.

An 11-year prospective study was carried out in 226 patients with organ-specific autoimmune disease (OSAD) coming from northern Italy and southern England. Patients were investigated for diabetes-related autoantibodies (ICAs, GADAbs, and IA2Abs) in order to evaluate the best immunological combination in predicting type 1 DM. One hundred twenty-eight patients were ICA positive (77 Italian and 51 English), and 98 were ICA negative. ICAs were detected by immunofluorescence technique on human pancreas, whereas GADAbs and IA2Abs were found by immunoprecipitation assay. During follow-up, 33 of 128 (25.8%) ICA(+) (26% of Italian and 25.5% of English) and 2 of 98 (2%) ICA(-) patients developed type 1 DM (17 with acute-onset, and 18 with non-acute-onset disease). Among ICA(+) patients, three subgroups were considered: ICA' alone; ICA and GADAb(+); ICA, GADAb, and IA2Ab(+). Patients who were only ICA' had a predictive value for type 1 DM of 4.7%, with an annual incidence of 0.7%, and a cumulative risk of 6%. ICA and GADAb(+) patients had a predictive value of 17.5%, with an annual incidence of 2%, and a cumulative risk of 20%. ICA, GADAb, and IA2Ab(+) patients had a predictive value of 72, with an annual incidence of 13%, and a cumulative risk of 87%. Patients having three immunological markers revealed a prevalence increased in HLA-DR3 and/or -DR4, but reduced in HLA-DR2 haplotypes. The risk for type 1 DM increased proportionally with the number of diabetes-related antibodies, which were also related to the presence of genetic markers of disease susceptibility.