anting in the South: What Does the Future Hold?

Projected ~tzcreasing den~und~sfor titrzber cordpled with reduced hun'ests or? prlbllt Iarzh tz~lcr led to corzcern amorzg some forest poltcjr?takers regarding the acfequac-y c?ff~ture U.S. timber su~~plics. 0176) question concerrzs the likelihood tltat yr-e~ailitzg r-r-larket incenti~res will induce ind~istrial ad norlindustrlul private latzdor-tlrzers to irztcnsifi forest wzatzagernent. We develop empirical models of historical tree plantirzg irz the southern United States as functions of ecorzomic variables nndfeder-a1 cost shaving. H'e use the nzndels to test whether tree pla~zting has been nteasurubly diflerent in recent years and to make 50 yrprojectiorzs offi~ture tree planting. flansest rates, tree plarzting costs, and federal cost-sharing are shown to be important factors aflecting nonindustrial private tree ylunting, while harvest rates, land values, and interest rates are inzporrarzt factors aflecting industrial tree planting. Nonind~~strial private tree plarztirrg is pi-ojerted to decline gmd~~nlfy u+ith anticipated rising plizrzting costs and corztinuation of lower le-~tels of federal tree planting cost-shurc. assi.staitce. Inclustriul tree planting is prc!jected to vise gradually with anticipated increasing industria 1 tznnl~..st rates. South. J. Appl. For-. 26(2):99-107.