Earthquake Casualty Models Within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System
Human Casualties in EarthquakesAdvances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research(2011)
摘要
Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time
needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere
in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the
ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities
in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate
aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural
vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article
describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred
since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated
casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets
including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of
regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.
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