Study of the Railway Passengers and Freight Prediction Based on the Gray Theory

In this paper,using the gray system theory,three gray prediction models of shadow in response to GM(1,1) model,Dynamic GM(1,1) model and modified-residual GM(1,1) model are built according to the data from 1996 to 2005 of the volume of passenger and cargo transport in railway,and the fitting precision of the three prediction models is given by the test of the after difference check.Then a most value prediction model which fits to the corresponding artery railway is established,which would make the decision-maker choose a reasonable and accurate precision model to every artery railway.Meanwhile,the difference between the real value and predictable value which using the single prediction model to different artery railway is decreased. Finally,the equal dimension prediction GM(1,1) is applied to predicting the volume of passenger and cargo transport of 2007,and its precision is better than the other methods.It could make a scientific and reasonable decision in reality by the decision-maker.