Proposal for Development and Implementation of A Global Information and Forecasting Service (GIFTS)

We propose to form a non-profit research venture to utilize and gradually improve the state of the art of modeling-forecasting technology, and to develop an automated network- service / information-clearinghouse capable of reliably predicting consequences of large scale human activities and interactions with the environment. The exemplar is the weather forecasting service used to predict potential climatological catastrophes. While initially emphasizing the problem of potential destructive conflicts between human populations, this service / clearinghouse will gradually be expanded to cover the full range of interrelated global environmental and social behaviors and changes. A network of data collection ('monitoring') stations, and the central analysis and dissemination of results, will in turn be funded by subscription open to all groups and persons, public and private. These subscribers will receive regular ongoing forecasts of probable political, social, economic, and environmental trends in areas of interest. They can also obtain (for an extra fee) special assessment reports analyzing probable responses to proposed actions of the subscriber by all communities in an area of interest. Subscribers are expected to include regional, national and international public agencies, corporations, non-profit /public interest organizations, and investment groups, as well as individuals. The goals of the service include contributing to the avoidance or mitigation of destructive conflicts or other unforeseen consequences, and the losses they entail, through proper assessment of likely responses to given choices or strategy. The modeling technology is expected to be refined over time and act as a catalyst to better joint decision-making by all parties having influence in a particular domain. Pricing for services will be based on operation costs and R & D efforts as well as the value provided to the subscriber.