Model for end-stage liver disease versus the Child-Pugh score in predicting the post-transplant 3-month and 1-year mortality in a cohort of Chinese recipients

Purpose This study evaluated the performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting post-transplant survival in a cohort of Chinese patients, and compared its predictive ability with that of the Child-Pugh score. Methods The study enrolled 117 adult Chinese patients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases from January 1998 to January 2007 to evaluate the baseline characteristics and outcomes. Results In a median follow-up duration of 90 weeks (range 0.2–373 weeks), 30 patients died. The 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of recipients in group 1 (MELD score <28) were 1.1% and 5.6%, in group 2 (MELD score 28-38) 18.8% and 50.0%, and in group 3 (MELD score >38) 91.7% and 91.7%, respectively. A statistical difference was observed in the mortality rates between the three groups ( P < 0.001). At 3 months, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MELD (0.950) was significantly higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.810; P < 0.05). Conclusions Both the MELD and Child-Pugh score are valid models to predict the short-term or mediumterm outcome of Chinese recipients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases. The MELD is superior to the Child-Pugh score in predicting the 3-month mortality post-transplantation.