A System Dynamics model of tuberculosis diffusion with respect to contact tracing investigation

Winter Simulation Conference(2011)

引用 6|浏览17
暂无评分
摘要
Despite great efforts to control the spread of tuberculosis (TB), the disease remains stubbornly persistent, having infected one third of the world population, and causing more than 1.5 million deaths annually. To better understand the epidemiology of TB, past modeling efforts have sought to understand how TB prevention and control policies affect infection spread in the population. This paper describes a preliminary dynamic model to evaluate the role of current contact tracing policies in managing TB transmission. Through a novel representation of contact tracing dynamics, the model supports investigation of how TB outcomes are affected by changes to the breadth and timeliness of contact investigation. Model results suggest that while successful contact tracing is self-limiting, it plays a critical role in TB control. Results also suggest that expanded breadth of contact tracing offers diminishing returns, and underscores the desirability of highly targeted contact tracing and the desirability of richer models.
更多
查看译文
关键词
health care,tb outcome,tb transmission,tuberculosis spread control,tb epidemiology,model result,diseases,control policy,contact tracing dynamics,tuberculosis diffusion,preliminary dynamic model,tb prevention,epidemics,contact tracing policy,disease,tb control,contact investigation,successful contact,tb transmission management,current contact,contact tracing investigation,infection spread,system dynamics model,microorganisms,system dynamics modeling,contact tracing,process control,mathematical model,calibration
AI 理解论文
溯源树
样例
生成溯源树,研究论文发展脉络
Chat Paper
正在生成论文摘要