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I am mainly interested in meta-science, where the focus is on the credibility or reliability of scientific results. We perform replications – typically meaning that experimental studies are redone using the same methods as in the original papers but on new and larger samples – and we also set up prediction markets and forecasting surveys to see whether researchers can predict replication outcomes as well as the outcomes of new hypothesis tests. We have done replications in experimental economics (Camerer et al. 2016), for social science experiments published in Nature and Science (Camerer et al. 2018), and we were also part of the big replication project in psychology (Open Science Collaboration 2015). These papers also include prediction markets, and our first paper on that topic is Dreber et al. 2015. Here is a summary of much of this in Swedish. In these projects we typically find that a substantial share of results does not replicate, and there is something systematic about which results replicate that the prediction markets can pick up.
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Christoph Huber,Anna Dreber,Jürgen Huber,Magnus Johannesson,Michael Kirchler,Utz Weitzel, Miguel Abellán,Xeniya Adayeva,Fehime Ceren Ay, Kai Barron,Zachariah Berry,Werner Bönte,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americano. 23 (2023)
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ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES (2023): 104280-104280
Scientific Reportsno. 1 (2022): 7575-7575
Social Science Research Network (2022)
Labour Economics (2022): 102204
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